Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 13 college football picks, bets and nuggets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 13 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-2. Season: 39-20-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-1. Season: 26-21-1)
The plays
Oklahoma Sooners (-2, 64) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Stanford Steve: Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire has built some serious momentum this year with what he and his staff have done in recruiting. What else would help would be if they got a sweep of Texas and Oklahoma on the field this season. Lubbock will be rocking for this one. We'll take the home team plus the points.
Pick: Texas Tech +2 (Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma 30)
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers (-10.5, 54)
Stanford Steve: Before the season, I gave out Indiana under 4.5 wins. We're just going to be greedy and see if the Hoosiers can lose to cash the win total cover while doing so. Take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Indiana +10.5 (Purdue 30, Indiana 21)
Michigan State Spartans at No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions (-18.5, 53)
The Bear: You know if given the chance, James Franklin will show no mercy on the scoreboard. Penn State has handled everyone other than Michigan and Ohio State, winning its past three games by 31, 30 and 45. Expect another rout here over a team that managed to give up 39 to Indiana in a loss last week.
Pick: Penn State -18.5
No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers (-14, 64) Vanderbilt Commodores
The Bear: How will Tennessee react after a dream-crusher type loss and a devastating injury to its QB Hendon Hooker? Vanderbilt can reach a bowl game with a win. This is one of those bets you have to be willing to lose, because if the Vols are hard-pressed to bounce back after last week's loss, there's a chance the Commodores won't just cover, they might win.
Pick: Vanderbilt +14
BYU Cougars (-6.5, 57.5) at Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Steve: Fresh off a crushing loss in a rivalry game, I'm interested to see what Stanford comes out like. BYU will use this as opportunity to get a win versus a Power 5 team. Cougs quarterback Jaren Hall and his 29 touchdown passes will be the difference. We'll take the road team and lay the points.
Pick: BYU -6.5 (BYU 31, Stanford 17)
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 8 Clemson Tigers (-14.5, 52)
The Bear: Clemson still entertains CFP hopes and it has a great situation this week as South Carolina comes in off a massive, unpredictable upset of Tennessee. That should have Dabo Swinney's team on full alert -- it will hear all week about the dangerous Gamecocks and I believe it will be extremely difficult for South Carolina to come close to repeating that out-of-the-blue offensive effort against the Clemson D. I'll be laying the points.
Pick: Clemson -14.5
Arkansas Razorbacks (-3, 55.5) at Missouri Tigers
The Bear: Five of the Tigers SEC games have been of the one-score variety and Missouri has one more chance to become bowl eligible. This spot screams Missouri as I believe Arkansas had its game last week when it blew out Ole Miss one week after the Razorbacks came up just short vs. LSU. The Tigers defense should be a much stiffer test for Arkansas and I give them an excellent chance to win.
Pick: Missouri +3
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $60
Last Week: -100
Season: -190
South Alabama Jaguars -700
UCF Knights -1000
Penn State Nittany Lions -1100
Clemson Tigers -600
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 0-4, -4 units (4 losses by combined 8 points!)Season: 12-36, -17.15 units
Vanderbilt Commodores +410
Arkansas Razorbacks +130
Bear bytes
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State BuckeyesThere have been six games this season between top-10 opponents. All six games have been won by the home team, with the five favorites each winning by double digits. Tennessee was an underdog when the Vols beat Alabama.
Each of the past eight meetings have gone over the total.
Ohio State has played 16 Big Ten home games under Ryan Day, and only two have been decided by 11 points and none has been decided by fewer than seven points. This will be the first time Ryan Day will face Michigan at Ohio Stadium.
No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 USC Trojans
Each of USC's and Notre Dame's past five games have gone over the total. The is the first time since 2016 -- and third time in the past 11 meetings -- that USC is favored over Notre Dame.
| STRAIGHT UP | ATS | |
|---|---|---|
| As underdog | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| As single-digit Favorite | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| As double-digit Favorite | 4-2 | 1-5 |
Iowa's past three games have seen totals of 31.5, 35.5 and 39. Those games saw 23, 34 and 27 points scored.
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 8 Clemson Tigers
Clemson has won seven straight vs. the Gamecocks, with only one coming by fewer than 18 points. This is the seventh straight year Clemson is at least an 11-point favorite over South Carolina. The Gamecocks have scored 10 or fewer points in four of the past five meetings.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks at No. 21 Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has been an underdog four times this season, and three of those games have been decided by exactly a field goal.
There haven't been many upsets lately in the "Civil War." Only twice in the past 13 years has the underdog won outright -- but both instances were Oregon State winning in Corvallis as an underdog.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has won the past four meetings by a 180-35 margin, covering 35.5, 28.5, 17 and 12 in those games
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs
This is the first time in Big 12 play TCU enters a game with a double-digit spread. Six times the Horned Frogs entered as a single-digit favorite and twice they entered as an underdog. The only time this year Iowa State was a double-digit underdog, the Cyclones lost 24-21 at Texas.
Dating back to 2016, Iowa State is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog, with two outright wins. Iowa State's past four games as a double-digit dog have been decided by a total of 13 points.
Iowa State Last 4 Games As A Double-Digit Dog
| RANK | TEAM | SPREAD | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Texas | +15.5 | Lost by 3 |
| 19 | Oklahoma | +14.5 | Lost by 1 |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | +10 | Won by 6 |
| 18 | TCU | +11.5 | Lost by 3 |
Alabama Vs. SEC Opponents Single-Digit Wins+Losses
| TIME FRAME | TIMES |
|---|---|
| Last 18 games | 11 < |
| Previous 57 Games | 11 |
| < Favored by at least 20 points in 4 of those games |
